States need to consider permanent budgetary changes to close ballooning deficits or risk “significant cracks” in the municipal bond market, the lieutenant governor of New York said on Monday.
Richard Ravitch said New York and other states had historically relied on temporary measures to balance budgets in downturns as a bridge to recovery, a strategy that was unsustainable.
“If nothing changes, you will see significant cracks in the $3,000bn [municipal bond] market,” said Mr Ravitch, a long-time fixture in New York public office who served as an adviser to the governor during New York City’s financial crisis in the 1970s. He is now devising a four-year financial plan for New York state.
The US recession has sapped state tax receipts, with revenue falling for four consecutive quarters, says the Nelson A Rockefeller Institute of Government, a research group. That has left states grappling with budget shortfalls projected to reach $350bn in the fiscal years 2010 and 2011, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
Yields in the municipal bond market, where state and local governments raise money, have begun to rise amid concerns about the health of local economies. But thanks to federal subsidies and demand from retail investors, they remain near the historical lows reached this autumn.
In October, the Bond Buyer 11-bond GO index, which tracks 20-year bonds with an average rating of Aa1, dropped to 3.69 per cent, which is the lowest since 1967. It has risen to 4.06 per cent but remains below the 10-year average of 4.73 per cent.
Mr Ravitch, speaking at a conference on state finances held by the Rockefeller Institute, warned that in spite of the size of the fiscal problems, “the message has not gotten through”.
New York governor David Paterson late on Monday said that talks to close a deficit of more than $3bn for the fiscal year ended March 31 have ended and he would use his powers to make cuts. Mr Paterson is withholding payments on unspecified local assistance programmes to prevent the state from running out of cash before the end of the fiscal year.
The state may face significant lay-offs as well as cuts to healthcare and education spending, said Mr Ravitch.
During the past 10 years, New York had used $20bn to $24bn of “one shots”, such as borrowings, asset sales, or non-recurring revenue items, to close deficits while spending had risen consistently, said Mr Ravitch. In addition to banking on economic cyclicality rather than long-term measures to close gaps, states have looked to the federal government for help, which they received through the Obama administration’s stimulus package.
Mr Ravitch said additional stimulus was a “dubious proposition”, given what he saw as a shifting political paradigm in the US based on the sharp criticism of the administration’s healthcare reform efforts.
Unlike municipalities, US states cannot use bankruptcy to restructure budgets because they are not eligible under the US bankruptcy code.
“We need to rethink what is most important about what states do,” said Mr Ravitch, including the role that state, federal and local governments play in funding and delivering public services.
“It is going to be impossible to continue to borrow as we and other states have to fund budget gaps.”
Showing posts with label NYSE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NYSE. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Stocks Take a Beating
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Stocks sold off at the start of the new quarter as disappointing jobless claims data left Wall Street bracing for Friday's unemployment report. After locking in 15% gains for the third quarter, the Dow Jones Industrial Average started off the new three-month period by taking a 204.89-point plunge, dropping 2.1%, to 9507.39, while the S&P 500 slid 27.4 points, or 2.6%, to 1029.68. The Nasdaq Composite edged down 64.94 points, or 3.1%, to 2057.48.
Losses were broadbased with financials, commodities, technology and home stocks hard hit. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, and the KBW Bank Index all sank more than 4%.
Stocks fell early after the Department of Labor said there were 551,000 new jobless claims last week, up from an upwardly revised 534,000 the week prior and topping expectations for 535,000.
Those data, paired with a worse than expected report on private sector job losses earlier in the week, have traders cautious ahead of the most-anticipated data of the week, Friday's unemployment report, says Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at ChannelCapitalResearch.com.
"You've seen chinks in the armor, so people are hesitant -- especially with it coming on a Friday," says Roberts. "There's uncertainty, and until there's some sort of resolution, people are going to be nervous."
Adding pressure to the market, Goldman Sachs changed its forecast for September nonfarm payrolls from a loss of 200,000 to a loss of 250,000, wrote James DePorre, founder and CEO of Shark Asset Management, on RealMoney.com.
In other data Thursday, Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index edged down 0.3 points to 53.6, vs. expectations for a rise to 54. The Chicago PMI spurred selling earlier in the week, when it indicated a contraction in manufacturing.
"Tentative signs in housing, automobile, Chicago PMI and several other economic indicators continue to remind us that the month of September was weaker than generally expected," writes Seabreeze Partners' Doug Kass. He later adds that, "at the risk of being the boy who cried wolf, I believe that market participants have a false sense of security in rising equity share prices."
"Plenty of stocks were pumped up by mark-up buying. The pump-up and subsequent support underneath is now gone," writes Jim Cramer on RealMoney.com."We know that jobless claims aren't improving. That's a real negative, especially for retail and banks. But, and this is a big but, we are not seeing the right stocks go up if we are signaling another dip down."
Not all of the recent data have been negative. Among the day's surprises, construction spending unexpectedly increased by 0.8% in August, and pending home sales rose by 6.4% vs. expectations for a much smaller, 1% gain.
At the same time, the Department of Commerce said personal income increased 0.2% in August, in line with the prior month's increase, and spending ticked up 1.3%, respectively, vs. 0.3% in July. Both readings were slightly better than expected.
In other news Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before the House Financial Services Committee on regulatory reform. Bernanke told members of Congress that a council of regulators should monitor systemic risk, while all systemically important financial firms should be subject to a consolidated regulator.
Losses were broadbased with financials, commodities, technology and home stocks hard hit. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, and the KBW Bank Index all sank more than 4%.
Stocks fell early after the Department of Labor said there were 551,000 new jobless claims last week, up from an upwardly revised 534,000 the week prior and topping expectations for 535,000.
Those data, paired with a worse than expected report on private sector job losses earlier in the week, have traders cautious ahead of the most-anticipated data of the week, Friday's unemployment report, says Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at ChannelCapitalResearch.com.
"You've seen chinks in the armor, so people are hesitant -- especially with it coming on a Friday," says Roberts. "There's uncertainty, and until there's some sort of resolution, people are going to be nervous."
Adding pressure to the market, Goldman Sachs changed its forecast for September nonfarm payrolls from a loss of 200,000 to a loss of 250,000, wrote James DePorre, founder and CEO of Shark Asset Management, on RealMoney.com.
In other data Thursday, Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index edged down 0.3 points to 53.6, vs. expectations for a rise to 54. The Chicago PMI spurred selling earlier in the week, when it indicated a contraction in manufacturing.
"Tentative signs in housing, automobile, Chicago PMI and several other economic indicators continue to remind us that the month of September was weaker than generally expected," writes Seabreeze Partners' Doug Kass. He later adds that, "at the risk of being the boy who cried wolf, I believe that market participants have a false sense of security in rising equity share prices."
"Plenty of stocks were pumped up by mark-up buying. The pump-up and subsequent support underneath is now gone," writes Jim Cramer on RealMoney.com."We know that jobless claims aren't improving. That's a real negative, especially for retail and banks. But, and this is a big but, we are not seeing the right stocks go up if we are signaling another dip down."
Not all of the recent data have been negative. Among the day's surprises, construction spending unexpectedly increased by 0.8% in August, and pending home sales rose by 6.4% vs. expectations for a much smaller, 1% gain.
At the same time, the Department of Commerce said personal income increased 0.2% in August, in line with the prior month's increase, and spending ticked up 1.3%, respectively, vs. 0.3% in July. Both readings were slightly better than expected.
In other news Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before the House Financial Services Committee on regulatory reform. Bernanke told members of Congress that a council of regulators should monitor systemic risk, while all systemically important financial firms should be subject to a consolidated regulator.
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