Flaherty Says Russia, China May Buy Canada Dollars

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Canada’s Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said China, with the world’s largest currency reserves of $2.3 trillion, may be poised to buy Canadian dollars as it seeks to shield its reserves against the U.S. dollar’s decline.

“It does not surprise me that China and Russia would take greater positions in the Canadian dollar than they have previously,” Flaherty, 59, said during an interview in his office in Ottawa. “I would expect countries looking around the world to invest in market currencies that are reliable.”

The U.S. dollar has declined against all but one of the 16 most-active currencies this year, prompting major reserve- holding countries such as Russia and China to express concern about their U.S.-denominated investments. Russia last month said it will add Canadian dollars to its reserves to lower its dependence on the U.S. currency.

The Bank of Canada has warned “persistent strength” in the currency is a main risk for the economy, potentially acting as a “significant” drag on growth. Canada’s currency has gained 15 percent this year against the U.S. dollar. Chinese purchases of Canadian dollars would also cement growing economic links between the U.S.’s two largest trading partners.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said in March that the nation was “worried” about the safety of its investment in U.S. debt, as a weakening dollar eroded the value of its reserves. China’s currency regulator said earlier this month it will “improve” its utilization of foreign-exchange reserves.

PetroChina

PetroChina Co., China’s largest oil company, this year bought its first stake in the Canadian oil sands, paying C$1.9 billion ($1.8 billion) for 60 percent of a project run by Athabasca Oil Sands Corp. Vancouver-based Teck Resources Ltd., Canada’s biggest base-metals producer, sold a 17 percent stake to China’s sovereign wealth fund for C$1.74 billion in July.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper, seeking to cut dependence on the U.S., traveled to China earlier this month to secure Asia’s second-biggest economy as a customer for oil, natural gas, uranium and other commodities.

“We know that China has been interested in things in Canada, whether it’s the bond market or the oil sands or oil companies,” said David Watt, senior currency strategist in Toronto at RBC Capital Markets, a unit of Canada’s biggest bank. “They’ve been sniffing around in the past. We know they’ve been interested.”

Watt said an amount equal to 2 percent of Asian reserves would mean about C$100 billion of currency flows into Canada.

“It would certainly be a positive backdrop for the currency,” Watt said.

Move to Parity

The Canadian currency gained 0.9 percent to C$1.0484 per U.S. dollar at 3:07 p.m. in Toronto, from C$1.0575 yesterday. One Canadian dollar purchases 95.38 U.S. cents.

Canada’s currency will appreciate to parity with the U.S. dollar by the middle of next year, Bank of Nova Scotia predicts. The median estimate of 38 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News is for the currency to strengthen to C$1.04 in that period. The currency last traded on a one-for-one basis in July 2008.

Asked whether the Canadian dollar’s gain was a concern, Flaherty said the government is worried about “sudden” moves that don’t give companies “sufficient time to adjust.”

Canada’s currency has gained in part as investors bet an accelerating economic recovery will prompt the central bank to raise interest rates sooner than in the U.S. Canada also sits on the largest pool of oil reserves outside the Middle East and is a major exporter of other commodities such as gold. A Canadian commodity price index compiled by the Bank of Canada has advanced more than 20 percent this year.

Canada also has the lowest debt levels among the Group of Seven nations, making its currency a relatively safer investment, Flaherty said in the interview on Monday.

‘Upward Pressure’

“It’s been clear for some time now that the downward pressure on the U.S. dollar is significant and that results in the other reliable market currencies having some upward pressure,” Flaherty said from his 21st-floor office that looks out to the hills of Gatineau Park. “I see it as a reflection of the relative strength of the Canadian dollar and the relative strength of our fiscal situation.”

Flaherty said China might relieve pressure on Canada’s dollar if the Asian country did more to loosen restrictions on movements of its currency.

Global “imbalances” will be a “primary subject” of discussion at a meeting of Group of Seven officials in February, he said. Canada will host a meeting of finance ministers and central bankers from the group on Feb. 5-6 in Iqaluit, a northern town near the Arctic Circle.

Lawmakers around the world are redesigning their financial architecture in the wake of the worst financial crisis in a generation that forced governments to spend more than $500 billion in the past year bailing out banks.

Officials will discuss “mutual assessment systems” to ensure the G-7 countries can be “checking on each other,” and developing so-called macro-prudential regulations that focus on risks to the financial system instead of a single financial institution, Flaherty said.

Bloomberg

Obama told China: I can't stop Israel strike on Iran indefinitely

U.S. President Barack Obama has warned his Chinese counterpart that the United States would not be able to keep Israel from attacking Iranian nuclear installations for much longer, senior officials in Jerusalem told Haaretz.

They said Obama warned President Hu Jintao during the American's visit to Beijing a month ago as part of the U.S. attempt to convince the Chinese to support strict sanctions on Tehran if it does not accept Western proposals for its nuclear program.

The Israeli officials, who asked to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the matter, said the United States had informed Israel on Obama's meetings in Beijing on Iran. They said Obama made it clear to Hu that at some point the United States would no longer be able to prevent Israel from acting as it saw fit in response to the perceived Iranian threat.


After the Beijing summit, the U.S. administration thought the Chinese had understood the message; Beijing agreed to join the condemnation of Iran by the International Atomic Energy Agency only a week after Obama's visit. But in the past two weeks the Chinese have maintained their hard stance regarding the West's wishes to impose sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

The Israeli officials say the Americans now understand that the Chinese agreed to join the condemnation announcement only because Obama made a personal request to Hu, not as part of a policy change.

The Chinese have even refused a Saudi-American initiative designed to end Chinese dependence on Iranian oil, which would allow China to agree to the sanctions, said the Israeli officials.

Saudi Arabia, which is also very worried about the Iranian nuclear program and keen to advance international steps against Iran, offered to supply the Chinese the same quantity of oil the Iranians now provide, and at much cheaper prices. But China rejected the deal.

Since Obama's visit, the Chinese have refused to join any measures to impose sanctions. The Israeli officials say the Chinese have been giving unclear answers and have not been responding to the claims by Western nations. Beijing has been making do with statements such as "the time has not yet arrived for sanctions."

China's actions are particularly problematic because China will take over the presidency of the UN Security Council in January. Western diplomats say China would have no choice but to join in sanctions if Russia agrees to support them, but China could delay discussions and postpone any decision until February, when France becomes council president.

The Israeli officials say Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is showing a greater willingness for sanctions on Iran, despite hesitations by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

China Signals That It May Allow Currency to Rise Against Dollar

China sent its clearest signal yet that it was ready to allow yuan appreciation after an 18-month hiatus, saying on Wednesday it would consider major currencies, not just the dollar, in guiding the exchange rate.

In its third-quarter monetary policy report, the People's Bank of China departed from well-worn language on keeping the yuan "basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level." It hinted instead at a shift from an effective dollar peg that has been in place since the middle of last year.

"Following the principles of initiative, controllability and gradualism, with reference to international capital flows and changes in major currencies, we will improve the yuan exchange-rate formation mechanism," the central bank said in a 46-page monetary policy report.

The comments, published just days before a visit to Shanghai and Beijing by U.S. President Barack Obama, set out the possibility of a return to exchange rate appreciation that began with a landmark July 2005 revaluation.

The yuan strengthened by nearly 20 percent against the dollar until concern over the impact of the global financial crisis prompted Beijing to hit the brakes in the middle of last year to protect exporters.

The yuan has been stuck at around 6.83 per dollar ever since, drawing increasing ire from other countries, especially as it has followed the dollar downwards against other currencies.

The dollar has dropped 13 percent against a basket of major currencies including the yen and euro since mid-February.

Back to a Basket?

Some analysts have called for the return to a genuine basket of currencies, which the central bank said in 2005 it would use as a reference for the yuan.



"I think the wording change ... shows that it is an irresistible trend for China to resume yuan appreciation," said Xing Ziqiang, an economist at China International Capital Corp (CICC) in Beijing.

"It is not sustainable for the yuan to always be pegged to the U.S. dollar; after all, the repegging since late 2008 was just part of China's measures to address the global financial crisis, and now the impact of the financial crisis is fading, so the yuan should resume appreciation sooner or later."

The central bank's report came just hours after data that showed the world's third-largest economy had firmly put the worst of the global financial crisis behind it. Factory output growth surged to a 19-month high of 16.2 percent in October.

While exports were still down in year-on-year terms, economists pointed to the likelihood that they would start growing again soon.

Some analysts said the statement could have been timed to send a signal ahead of Obama's Nov. 15-18 visit to China.

Obama told Reuters on Monday that he planned to raise the currency issue during his trip.

However, Beijing is increasingly facing complaints about its currency from other emerging economies, which see an undervalued yuan as undercutting them in global markets.

No Sudden Shift

Those concerns were evident in a draft statement from APEC finance ministers circulated on Wednesday, in which they call for flexible interest rates and exchange rates as a way of redressing economic balances.

"We agreed that flexible prices, including exchange rates and interest rates, play a critical role in allocating resources efficiently, and can facilitate the adjustments needed to support balanced and sustainable global growth," said the latest draft statement by the finance ministers dated Nov. 10.

While the statement could change in its final form, a deputy Chinese finance minister was present at discussions on it, suggesting some level of agreement by Beijing on the wording.



However, analysts were quick to caution against expecting any sudden shift in the yuan's actual value, given China's penchant for carrying out any reforms gradually.

"The central bank's worries about capital flows, liquidity, and inflation signal growing pressure for yuan appreciation," said Ben Simpfendorfer, strategist with the Royal Bank of Scotland in Hong Kong.

"But I'm not looking for gains in the currency until the second quarter as the export sector still faces large challenges and margin pressure." Markets priced in a slightly greater appreciation over the coming year.

Offshore one-year dollar/yuan non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) fell to 6.6075 bid late on Wednesday compared with Tuesday's close of 6.6320.

Yuan appreciation implied by NDFs, which moves inversely with the forwards, was around 3.3 percent in a year compared with 3.06 percent before the announcement.

Xing with CICC said he was expecting even greater appreciation, of 3 to 5 percent next year, in the face of growing external and internal pressure.

"For China's own sake of balancing its economic growth and reducing its large surplus in the trade account, it is also necessary for the government to make the yuan more flexible."

Bloomberg, Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may drop to 50 yen next year and eventually lose its role as the global reserve currency, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.’s chief strategist said, citing trading patterns and a likely double dip in the U.S. economy.

“The U.S. economy will deteriorate into 2011 as the effects of excess consumption and the financial bubble linger,” said Daisuke Uno at Sumitomo Mitsui, a unit of Japan’s third- biggest bank. “The dollar’s fall won’t stop until there’s a change to the global currency system.”

The dollar last week dropped to the lowest in almost a year against the yen as record U.S. government borrowings and interest rates near zero sapped demand for the U.S. currency. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, has fallen 15 percent from its peak this year to as low as 75.211 today, the lowest since August 2008.

The gauge is about five points away from its record low in March 2008, and the dollar is 2.5 percent away from a 14-year low against the yen.

“We can no longer stop the big wave of dollar weakness,” said Uno, who correctly predicted the dollar would fall under 100 yen and the Dow Jones Industrial Average would sink below 7,000 after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. last year. If the U.S. currency breaks through record levels, “there will be no downside limit, and even coordinated intervention won’t work,” he said.

China, India, Brazil and Russia this year called for a replacement to the dollar as the main reserve currency. Hossein Ghazavi, Iran’s deputy central bank chief, said on Sept. 13 the euro has overtaken the dollar as the main currency of Iran’s foreign reserves.

Elliott Wave

The greenback is heading for the trough of a super-cycle that started in August 1971, Uno said, referring to the Elliot Wave theory, which holds that market swings follow a predictable five-stage pattern of three steps forward, two steps back.

The dollar is now at wave five of the 40-year cycle, Uno said. It dropped to 92 yen during wave one that ended in March 1973. The dollar will target 50 yen during the current wave, based on multiplying 92 with 0.764, a number in the Fibonacci sequence, and subtracting from the 123.17 yen level seen in the second quarter of 2007, according to Uno.

The Elliot Wave was developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression. Wave sizes are often related by a series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence, pioneered by 13th century mathematician Leonardo Pisano, who discerned them from proportions found in nature.

Uno said after the dollar loses its reserve currency status, the U.S., Europe and Asia will form separate economic blocs. The International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights may be used as a temporary measure, and global currency trading will shrink in the long run, he said.

China to Buy $2 Billion worth of US Mortgages

China Investment Corp, the country's $200 billion sovereign wealth fund, is set to pour up to $2 billion soon into the U.S. mortgage system by hiring mandates under the U.S. Treasury-backed Public-Private Investment Plan (PPIP), sources told Reuters.

Under the PPIP program launched earlier this year the U.S. government plans to seed a number of public-private investment funds that would combine taxpayer money with private capital to buy as much as $40 billion in toxic securities from banks.

Selling of U.S. Treasuries

Brazil and Canada were among big sellers of Treasurys in the latest month for which data is available and the previous year, catching analysts off guard and raising speculation that quieter nations may be concerned about investing in the U.S.

Brazil and Russia, which along with India and China are part of the so-called BRIC countries, have expressed concern with the strength of the U.S. dollar. It was therefore not so surprising that the two countries reduced their holdings of Treasurys in May, according to the latest data available from the Treasury International Capital report released last week. The two are among the largest holders of Treasurys.

But Canada, the biggest trading partner for the U.S., has publicly said nothing of the sort. Taiwan and France were also notable sellers of Treasurys in the latest month.

"It's a bit like friendly fire," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at The Bank of New York Mellon. "We saw some record selling of long-term Treasurys and that's exactly the kind of thing Wall Street and the government have been worried about for years, and it came from some unexpected places."

Markets, especially currencies, took comfort that China - the largest holder of U.S. Treasurys - continued adding to its holdings despite repeated commentary from officials that it may do otherwise. Japan, the second largest holder, reduced its Treasury portfolio in the latest month but has increased it substantially in the previous 12 months.